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19 answers from 2011-12.

On October 17th of last year I wrote a long piece asking 19 questions that in turn previewed this new iteration of the Princeton Tigers.

(You might want to read that before going any further.)

With the regular season concluded a reader wisely suggested that I revisit these queries and see what the answers ended up being.

Agree? Disagree? Add your own answers and observations in the comments.

1. Can Douglas Davis catch Kit Mueller?

Davis started 2011-12 trailing Princeton's second all-time leading scorer by 436 points.

He's still 47 points away from where Mueller ended his senior year and the Tigers would need an extended postseason run for Davis to catch him.

However, it is exceptionally likely that Davis will score the one point required to become the third Princeton player with 1,500 or more points in their career.

Alongside Bill Bradley and Mueller is darn good company.

Davis did this while never achieving first team All-Ivy status.

2. What about Brian Earl? Can Davis catch him too?

Davis started the season in fourth place all-time for made three pointers at Princeton with 193, 88 behind assistant coach Brian Earl. While he passed Sean Jackson and Gabe Lewullis he's still 16 in back of Earl.

He's also now third all-time in made threes by an Ivy player. Ryan Wittman of Cornell holds the record with an ungodly 377 triples.

3. Who is this year's Mack Darrow?

With then-freshmen T.J. Bray and Ben Hazel part of the Sydney Johnson's rotation as freshman, I see Chris Clement, Daniel Edwards and Tom Noonan as the remaining candidates for a step forward. The work away from campus put in by each since March will likely determine if one of these three sophomores can become the next Mack Darrow.

Clement, Edwards and Noonan played little as sophs, with Noonan missing significant time due to a kneecap injury.

Both Mitch Henderson and Sydney Johnson before him have talked with pride about how "our players get better." How much better between March and October and then how much better between October and January in practice will determine Princeton's success this season.

It was the in-season improvement of T.J. Bray, Brendan Connolly and Jimmy Sherburne that drove Princeton to 19 victories this season.

4. You mentioned Chris Clement. Where does he fit in?

Can Clement and Davis pair in the backcourt? It would be an exciting pairing but I don't know how many stops they'd generate. Did I just answer my third question?

Clement played 27 minutes in 11 total games, scoring five points for the season.

5. How does Mitch Henderson replace the possessions lost by the graduation of Dan Mavraides and Kareem Maddox?

Ian Hummer led the team as a sophomore by being involved on 25.6% of all possessions. It is unlikely he'll be used substantially more than that number. The highest usage percentage for one player in 2010-11 was Anatoly Bose of Nicholls State at 36.7% and Jimmer Fredette was right behind at 36.4%.

Davis, Brendan Connolly and Will Barrett each utilized less than 20% of Princeton's possessions and Patrick Saunders, Darrow and Bray were a part of under 15% of their team's possessions. Some combination of these six players will need to rise up one tier as freshmen and/or "this year's Mack Darrow" slide into the lower end of the possession scale.

I was wrong. Hummer's usage rate went up considerably to 31.7%, 20th-highest in the nation.

Davis, Barrett and freshman Denton Koon each were 20.0%+ with Connolly at 19.8%.

Darrow rose to 18.5% and his offensive rating of 118.8 is 101th in the land, an ever-efficient contributor.

6. Can T.J. Bray develop from a facilitator into a more significant role?

As a sophomore there is the opportunity to not just increase his overall minutes but become a key part of the guard rotation with Mavraides' 33.0 minutes removed from the 200 available each game.

1.5 ppg is going to rise, but how far?

Yes. Yes yes yes yes yes.

7.3 ppg, the team's third-leading scorer and averaging 8.1 points in conference games.

A team-best 32.9 minutes/game.

110 assists.

41.4% three point shooting, 42.4 in Ivy action.

60.1 Effective Field Goal Percentage, 52nd in the nation.

7. Is there an upperclassman who will earn a new opportunity under the new coaching staff?

Could Comfort rediscover this role of fast points and zone busts off the bench as a senior?

Not often, but there were moments, such as three straight treys in the first half at Bucknell.

While I wouldn't have thought it possible during the non-conference results, the answer to this question down the stretch was Jimmy Sherburne.

8. Who else has "Bread & Butter"?

Dissatisfied with a series of offensive possessions? Princeton can always post Ian Hummer and get a look close to the basket. Hummer is one of the few Tigers with the loss of Maddox and Mavraides to have a “Bread & Butter” move he can create that’s both reliable and constant. If Hummer is off, who else can provide similar opportunities?

Connolly.

Eventually.

9. Can the Brendan Connolly of the last two games of the season be the Brendan Connolly of a full season?

Princeton will have no shortage of talented bigs this year but Connolly continues to offer looks that others don't. The key is staying on the floor. Connolly's 6.2 fouls/40 minutes were second only to Barrett's 6.9.

Full season? No.

Connolly did drop his fouls/40 minutes to 5.0 (Sherburne is tops at 6.2 and Barrett was 5.8) but it took him a long time to find himself as a junior.

Unable to exceed six points in any non-conference DI game, Connolly hit double figures seven times in the final 15 outings of the season and returned to the starting lineup in Princeton's win over then-nationally ranked Harvard on February 11.

The Tigers were 7-1 his last eight starts.

10. Where do the freshman fit in?

It was Denton Koon, not Clay Wilson as many expected, who cracked the Princeton rotation.

However, Wilson likely would have been more in the mix if he had not injured his shoulder during the non-conference slate.

Playing all 30 games off the bench, Koon shot 55.1% from the floor and was versatile enough that he could be used by Mitch Henderson as a guard or a forward on offense while utilizing his length to cover an assortment of different types of foes on defense.

Around the exam break, Henderson said "exams won" for Koon but the frosh was able to fight his way through and he played a minimum of 13 minutes each time out in the Tigers' last nine games.

11. Will the lightbulb stay on for Will Barrett?

Unfortunately, right after playing his best game of the season in late November versus Lafayette (six points, eight rebounds, three blocks and three steals), Barrett went down with an injury and was lost for the season.

The only positive is that it is likely Barrett will return for both 2012-13 and 2013-14.

Since getting hurt Barrett is ubiquitous around the Princeton program from practices to observing individual workouts to being on the floor during warmups prior to a game.

He's dying to help his team any way possible. That's good to see.

12. How much of a mental toll will playing 12 straight Division I opponents away from Jadwin Gym have?

It wasn't an issue until Ivy play began.

The Tigers started their nomadic existence 5-2 but began Ivy action 2-3 in conference. While they never made excuses about their first five conference games on the road, this combined with the exam break schedule rubbing up against games at Cornell, Columbia and Penn didn't do the team any favors.

I expect steps to be taken so that no member of the Ancient Eight has to play a similar stretch in the manner that Princeton was forced to due to scheduling snafus.

13. Does having a true big man on the coaching staff make a difference?

I think it did (both Darrow and Connolly learned some sneaky tricks) but we'll get a better answer to this question by watching Bobby Garbade's development.

14. Will Ian Hummer attempt his first career three point shot?

It didn't take long, starting with a pure trey in the second half of the season opener versus Wagner.

Hummer not only attempted his first three but he had 58 shots come from behind the arc. 19 of them went in the basket (32.8%) and this new wrinkle to his game only helped make Hummer a more dangerous unanimous All-Ivy player.

If Hummer is going to use more possessions, he's going to go to the free throw line even more often. Hummer's 126 attempts were second only to Maddox's 161 and sixth-most in the Ivy. After starting the season 13-26 he improved to 68-100 the final 27 games. If Hummer were to attempt as many FTs as Maddox did in 2010-11 he'd already have 121 points at the line by bumping his FT average up to 70%.

Hummer was again poor at the line to start the season (60.2% non-conference) but ended the year at 65.9%, up from 64.3% as a junior. Perhaps most important was the leap he took to 73.9% in Ivy action (versus 68.3% last year).

He's attempted 167 free throws, most in the Ivy.

15. Usage percentage is fancy and all, but how does a new head coach really replace Maddox and Mavraides?

If Hummer can improve his sometimes too excitable perimeter defense and players like Darrow, Connolly and even Saunders can use footwork and positioning to frustrate opponents' bigs (I loved the mixed looks that kept Keith Wright off his game in two of the three games versus Harvard) that will only benefit quality defensive guards such as Bray, Hazel and the previously unmentioned Jimmy Sherburne.

Perhaps this is just a fancy way of saying "defense by committee depending on circumstance" and "overall team offense combines to fill scoring voids."

Looking at Ken Pomeroy's Defensive Adjusted Efficiency, the Tigers are 91st overall in 2011-12 after ranking 76th last year. The drop off was significant at the start of the year but as the team coalesced there was staunch improvement late.

While I'm on the KenPom site, Princeton's Offensive Adjusted Efficiency was up slightly this year (93rd) compared to the 2010-11 Ivy champs (100th).

Both were second-best in the conference.

16. He's a senior and a co-captain, but you have barely mentioned Patrick Saunders. Why?

I'm not sure. Probably because you know what you're going to get. About 20 minutes, five points and three rebounds a game, a three point shot or two with an unorthodox but successful release and well over 50% on bunny layins right by the basket. He's been the same player all three of his seasons at Princeton and has the same demeanor if he's playing single digit minutes or almost the entire game.

Saunders' Free Throw Rate was worst on the team, 9.7. As a freshman that number stood at 37.8. A good shot at the line, he's got to find more ways to get fouled in the act. Saunders attempted 14 free throws the entire 2010-11 season.

Saunders didn't get to the line too often as a senior (19-23 overall) but his play the past five games has been some of his best as a Tiger, including a 9-12 stretch from three point range and 10 points on five layups in the final game against Penn.

When Saunders has been able to score, his shot opens up so much of the floor for the rest of his team.

17. Does tempo stay at a similar clip?

Probably. Princeton improved to an Adjusted Tempo of 63.8 in 2010-11, below the national average of 66.7 but higher than it had been in a long time. Northwestern last year with Henderson as an assistant was only a touch better at 64.0. The big difference was the two teams' efficiency. Princeton was 100th-best at 105.3. Northwestern ran their stuff even better, clocking in at 115.5 or 18th in the nation.

Princeton's 2011-12 Adjusted Tempo: 63.8, the same as last year. The national average was 66.2.

This is surprising because the Tigers did not push the ball as often or look to get alley oops in transition.

Northwestern without Henderson? Slower than last year at 63.4 and not as fast as Princeton was.

18. Can Princeton stay positive?

Last season was the first since the prior Ivy League championship team in 2003-04 where the Tigers had more assists than turnovers (427:389). Playing more possessions per game, Princeton had their highest assist count since 505 in 1999-2000. Coming from a program that has been at the top of assist-to-turnover ratio at Northwestern (the Wildcats' 1.7 rate was second best in the land), Mitch Henderson should value players who take good care of the ball.

Yup. 427 assists and 374 turnovers. Unless they play exclusively one-on-one in the postseason they'll end up with more dimes and fewer giveaways than in 2010-11.

Hard to imagine after the 27 turnovers and miscues 38% of the time in the season opener against Wagner!

19. So, can anyone beat Harvard?

The Crimson return everyone from the co-champions of the Ivy League. All pundits, prognosticators and publications predict them to hoist the trophy on their own in 2011-12. Still, Harvard was a trio of second half rallies away from dropping both games against Brown and at home against Dartmouth (I understand this sentence says nothing about some of the escape acts Princeton pulled in conference).

For all of their talent, I don't know many who give their coaching staff a great deal of credit in the games they win. It would not surprise me to see them lose a game to an inferior Ivy opponent. It will then fall to Princeton to avoid doing the same like they have the last three seasons at Brown, versus Brown and versus Dartmouth. The Tigers may play their first five Ivy contests away from home but they do get Harvard at their place first.

It was close. Princeton beat Harvard at Jadwin and led the Crimson for the majority of their game at Lavieties Pavilion. However, the Tigers dropped an early Ivy contest at Cornell and the Crimson never wilted despite multiple close conference games, including a final weekend OT win at Columbia.

While the Crimson (12-2) won the Ivy League title outright by a game over Penn (11-3) and two games over Princeton (10-4), the Tigers had the second-most impressive overall body of work in a season that saw the league at its all-time strongest from top to bottom.

Rodney Johnson said,

March 10, 2012 @ 4:01 pm

I thought I saw quite a bit of specific "big man" coaching benefit Connolly as the season went on--little ball fakes, spin moves, and a better drop step. Still never saw a reverse pivot, but he is understandably hesitant to expose the ball to the man guarding him.

Coco said,

March 10, 2012 @ 5:51 pm

RE: #5

You wrote: "Davis, Barrett and freshman Denton Koon each were 20.0%+ with Connolly at 19.8%." for 2011-2012.

Barrett at 20%? Is this based only on the games he was in-- or is this a statistical error?

Jon Solomon said,

March 10, 2012 @ 9:04 pm

The stat is right. When Barrett was on the floor he was involved 20.7% of the time - shots, attempts, assists, turnovers, etc.

This year's national leader is Josh Watkins of Utah at 38.9%.

George Clark said,

March 11, 2012 @ 12:09 am

Fascinating look back at the 2011-12 campaign. To me, the biggest question going in centered on the change at the helm. Mitch Henderson answered by turning in the best first year since Bill Carmody dropped the bomb in JT lll's lap. On the court, the loss of Mavraides and Maddox created a huge hole at both ends. Enter TJ Bray in the backcourt and the rotation of Connolly, Darrow, Saunders and, early on, Barrett up front. I think the Lafayette game was pivotal for the rest of the season, coming as it did right after the low point in Lewisburg. Will Barrett's injury might have been devastating, but Denton Koon "left the nest" that night. His contributions have been crucial ever since. When he begins to assert himself on offense, is a little less deferential to his elders, he will be a mainstay for the Tigers.
Connolly has yet to answer all of his questions. His window of effectiveness on offense remains smaller than one hopes it can be, but his teammates have done a pretty good job of playing to his strengths. Once he cut down on his fouls he became indispensable as a defensive force. He has another year to prove himself and I have a strong feeling that he will have a big season in 2012-13.
We must all hope that Sherburne's injury is not serious. (Any updates, Jon?) If he can play for long stretches the way he has in short bursts for the last month, the Tigers go a long way toward answering the backcourt issues raised by the departure of DD.
I am counting on Will Barrett to provide a seamless transition from Patrick Saunders' minutes, but Saunders' play in the last 8-10 games has set the bar pretty high.
When Sherburne and Barrett return at full strength a 7 man rotation is pretty well set. Ben Hazel, if he returns, and/or Clay Wilson can certainly help with the ball handling chores. I look for Bobby Garbade to get some minutes in the post next year. If a freshman is able to crack this lineup for significant minutes he will need to be a special player.
All four of this year's contenders for the Ivy crown will lose key seniors: Wright and McNally, Rosen, Bernardini and Belcore, Mangano and Wilhite, Davis and Saunders. The 2013 title chase should be as exciting as the last two.

Jon Solomon said,

March 11, 2012 @ 12:17 am

Last I heard, Sherburne's shoulder was a-ok. 7-8 days off between games can't hurt.

Rodney Johnson said,

March 11, 2012 @ 9:04 am

Josh Watkins WAS the national leader until he was dismissed from the team (U of U) in early January. (I realize this is of no particular interest to the readers of this blog--just a piece of trivia.)

Dave Mills said,

March 11, 2012 @ 3:42 pm

"in a season that saw the league at its all-time strongest from top to bottom."

Wow! That's heady stuff. Even with Dartmouth and Brown having such poor records?

Jon Solomon said,

March 11, 2012 @ 4:01 pm

Yep.

From Michael James at the 14-Game Tournament:

"Top Ivy Adj Pythag Averages: 1) 2012 (.477); 2) 2011 (.423); 3) 1993 (.395); 4) 2002 (.392); 5) 1997 (.388); 6) 2003 (.386); 7) 2010 (.380)."

Jon

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