The web site NIT-ology has, as their name might suspect, been projecting the National Invitational Tournament field since the 2004-05 season.
They had 97% of the teams correct last year, 93.8% correct in 2007-08.
Below their projected seeds table, which takes into account the NIT's automatic bids for regular season conference champions that lost in their conference tournament, are a list in red of 33 teams they see as on the NIT bubble - likely candidates for the either the College Basketball Invitational or College Insider Tournament.
While Princeton is not on this list (which includes both Harvard and Northwestern), the picture I see developing favors the Tigers for a postseason bid.
The Tigers' RPI has fallen to 132 - thanks for nothing, Central Michigan - but here's where they stand as of this morning compared to the following 100+ RPI teams on NIT-ology's list:
Georgia 14-16 (100) Ohio 18-14 (109) Wisconsin Green Bay 19-12 (110) Northern Colorado 23-7 (114) Boston College 15-16 (117) Colorado 13-16 (118) Colorado State 15-15 (119) Iowa State 15-17 (125) Virginia 15-15 (126) Princeton 20-8 (132) Western Kentucky 21-13 (135) Oregon 16-16 (137) Nebraska 15-18 (144)
While the CBI will take programs with a sub-.500 record, like 2009 College Basketball Invitational champion Oregon State, the College Insider Tournament is dedicated to a 16 team field of "mid major" schools.
Last year Old Dominion beat Bradley in the championship game.
So far 16-15 Creighton (115) and 17-14 George Mason (158) have announced they will host CIT games early next week. The Great West Conference tournament champion also receives an automatic bid to this tournament.
That leaves 13 slots, one of which could go to Princeton. I'd certainly have no problem with a game in Fairfax, Virginia on Tuesday night.
Here are some newspaper reports about other teams in the same pool as Princeton, including some of the schools in the table I've created:
Nebraska will most likely not be in the CBI, says the Omaha World-Herald.
Georgia is not sure they would accept a postseason bid.
16-15 Bradley (103) will not play a tournament game.
Wisconsin-Green Bay does not appear willing to pay to host a CBI ($70,000) or CIT ($31,000) home game.
16-12 Southern Mississippi (104) coach Larry Eustachy says his team is likely to receive a bid.
22-10 Illinois State (74) hopes for the NIT, but would probably accept a CBI or CIT invite.
The Northern Colorado coaches are in negotiations to host a CBI or CIT game if they don't make the NIT.
One team who will only play in the NIT is 15-16 South Carolina (91).
I guess the next step is to make an Excel spreadsheet listing the top 150 teams in the RPI and crossing off the NCAA teams, teams like USC that can't play in the postseason and teams that say they won't continue on.
While the ranking numbers look good, ultimately this may come down to another set of numbers - dollars and cents. If Princeton is unwilling to spring for a CBI or CIT game and another school says they'll pay the price after the full slate of road squads has been accounted for, Tuesday may have been the last game of 2009-10.
