Never tell me the odds!

February 27, 2011 at 1:20 pm
Filed under Basketball, Princeton

"Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating the Ivy League is approximately .495 to 1!"

A friend who asked to remain anonymous sent me a spreadsheet this morning including all 20 possible outcomes (16 decided in the regular season, four decided with a playoff) for Princeton and Harvard's remaining games.

Using Ken Pomeroy's predictive model, Harvard is at 50.5% to win the league, Princeton is at 49.5%.

The chances of a one game playoff for the NCAA bid are 36.4%.

See a full table of games and scenarios after the jump.

The most "likely" regular-season scenario is Harvard sweeping their last weekend, then Princeton beating Penn on Tuesday to force a playoff. There's a 31.6% chance of that.

Princeton has a 26.4% chance of sweeping Dartmouth and Harvard on the road, thus clinching the title.

Harvard has a 61.0% chance of sweeping Penn and Princeton and clinching at least a share of its first Ivy title.

By all means click to enlarge.

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R.W. Enoch, Jr. said,

February 27, 2011 @ 1:29 pm

Percentages based on...?

It seems ridiculous to me that the single most likely scenario is that Harvard & Penn both beat Princeton. Where does that number come from? We already beat both of them once.

R.W. Enoch, Jr. said,

February 27, 2011 @ 1:31 pm

Oh. Pomeroy. I'm good at reading.

Jon Solomon said,

February 27, 2011 @ 1:33 pm

Here are single game predictions from KenPom:

Princeton at Dartmouth (Princeton 91% chance of winning)
Penn at Harvard (Harvard 86%)
Princeton at Harvard (Harvard 71%)
Princeton at Penn (Princeton 57%)

R.W. Enoch, Jr. said,

February 27, 2011 @ 1:40 pm

Alright, I shall try to redeem myself for the hastiness of my first comment.

Statistics like these always annoy me because they fail to take into account things like:
1) Harvard playing Penn-Princeton back to back is much more difficult than Princeton playing Dartmouth-Harvard back to back. In a vacuum 71% might be realistic odds, but the reality is that Harvard will likely be more fatigued than Princeton going into Saturday.
2) Coach Amaker has a terrible track record against Coach J., and I don't think that's just a coincidence.

Coco said,

February 27, 2011 @ 2:34 pm

Of course, if we simply win all three games, who cares!!!! Go Tiger!

Jon Solomon said,

February 27, 2011 @ 3:16 pm

If numbers aren't your thing, get ready for an epic piece coming this week about the insane, inexplicable and bizarre games that have occurred at Harvard the past decade plus. Some crazy finishes and some unreal stories - all happening in the same gym.

Eric Herz said,

February 27, 2011 @ 3:59 pm

So my question is: Does anyone know where the 1-game playoff would be? I know that the last two were in Bethlehem and Phily. I'd think this one would be in NYC or New Haven. Any ideas, Jon?

Regardless, I'll be in Cambridge in 6 days.

R.W. Enoch, Jr. said,

February 27, 2011 @ 4:06 pm

When the women had a playoff against Dartmouth in 2006, it was in New Haven. That's my guess.

Jon Solomon said,

February 27, 2011 @ 4:11 pm

Depends on availability. I remember Hofstra being bandied about last season if needed.

Quinnipiac is an interesting option. Gym holds 1K more than Yale or Columbia. Nice, newer facility from what I've seen on TV.

Fairfield's Harbor Yard building is right on 95 but at 10K might be both booked for a potential date and way too large.

I'd expect the Ivy League to announce something in their weekly release on Monday.

Jon

R.W. Enoch, Jr. said,

February 27, 2011 @ 4:13 pm

Are the play-off games usually well attended?

Jon Solomon said,

February 27, 2011 @ 4:21 pm

The '96 Penn/Princeton at Lehigh was sold out (5,600 capacity).

The Princeton/Yale game at the Palestra in 2002 was very sparsely attended. 2,108 if that with a lot of indifferent Penn fans in the building just because they could be.

The Yale/Penn playoff at Lafayette looked like a madhouse on TV (Kirby holds 3,500). A New York Times story describes even the aisles being full.

Jon

Jon Solomon said,

February 27, 2011 @ 4:27 pm

Ps. I asked Scottie Rodgers from the Ivy League about a playoff. He says no decisions have been made on when or where. This will be discussed more early this week and won't be announced Monday.

Stuart Schulman said,

February 27, 2011 @ 4:44 pm

The '81 playoff at Lafayette was also a sellout or close to it.

My first guess would be @ Yale simply because it is an Ivy facility, but Quinnipiac is exactly between Princeton and Harvard as the crow flies.

Patrick Ying said,

February 27, 2011 @ 4:57 pm

I doubt it would happen but Levien would be an interesting choice. Accessible by train, lots of alums in the area, big media market.

R.W. Enoch, Jr. said,

February 27, 2011 @ 5:03 pm

There's a quaint little gym in the city called Madison Square Garden. The League office could maybe look into that one.

Jon Solomon said,

February 27, 2011 @ 5:17 pm

There's a quaint little event called the Big East Tournament March 8-12.

R.W. Enoch, Jr. said,

February 27, 2011 @ 6:05 pm

Is the play-off game usually on Saturday?

Jon Solomon said,

February 27, 2011 @ 6:56 pm

2002 final and 1996 were on Saturdays.

1980 was a Tuesday - but Penn/Princeton didn't finish on a Tuesday that season.

1981 was a Tuesday - but Penn/Princeton didn't finish on a Tuesday that season.

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