Princeton visits host school Bucknell on the first leg of the Legends Classic subregional the day after Thanksgiving. Curious about how this year's model of the Bison differs from the team the Tigers defeated in 2010-11, I traded emails with the well-cloaked Bison137, who spends much of his time on Bucknell's Basketball-U board. The result is an unprecedented fifth Know! Your! Foe! preview in as many games this season.
If you cover a team the Tigers will face down the line, let us know. It would be great to talk with you.
How different is this Bucknell team from the one Princeton played in the College Basketball Experience a year ago?
Different in a few ways. Although BU only lost one starter (PG Darryl Shazier), Shazier ran the team and was second in the nation in assist:turnover ratio - A big loss in terms of the offensive flow and getting the ball in the right player's hands at the right moment. They are now breaking in a new PG (6'5" soph Cameron Ayers), who is a talented player but still learning the position, as he is more naturally a wing. A second change is that they lost a very versatile player off the bench in GW Boon, who could play the two, three, and sometimes the four. I don't know if it's a difference - but on the positive side, BU returns four starters plus Ayers, who was one of the two main subs last year. In theory all of those players should be at least a little better. PF Joe Willman has been playing great basketball and is a very important player for BU when he stays out of foul trouble. He and Brian Cohen have been looking to score more this year - which is a difference - as a lot of teams seem to be focusing their defensive efforts on center Mike Muscala and shooter Bryson Johnson, who hit over 45% on threes last year.
I see five players averaging between 8.8 and 13.8 points per game. How critical is that balance to the Bison's success in 2011-12?
I think it's critical that they get balanced scoring IF teams continue to concentrate on Muscala and Johnson. However if a lot of the teams on Bucknell's schedule choose not to double Muscala, he is capable of getting 25 points on them. He has a very good jump hook - usually lefty even though he shoots jump shots righthanded - and has range out to the arc. As mentioned before, Johnson is one of the nation's top three-point shooters, but that is usually the only way he scores. So if teams double Muscala and concentrate on taking the the three away from Johnson, then that means BU need scoring from Willman, Cohen, and Ayers.
Is there a player outside of this quintet people should keep their eyes on this weekend?
Good question. Unlike last year, the Bucknell bench is a bit of a mystery. Freshman guard Steve Kaspar got 15 minutes at the point against Marist last night and seems likely to earn 15+ minutes going forward at the point. (Ayers then shifts to wing part-time.) Brian Fitzpatrick, a 6'8" PF who transferred to BU from Penn, had a good first half off the bench last night and is likely to backup the four full-time and the five if the opposition has a smaller center. Senior Enoch Andoh will sub in at center against bigger centers. Andoh has a good post game - but unfortunately plays in an offense that often doesn't utilize a true post. (He was recruited by previous coach Flannery, whose offense always utilized at least one post player.) Other than those three, it is very unclear who else will appear from one game to the next between soph PG Ryan Hill, soph 2/3 Ben Brackney, and frosh 2/3 Joshea Singleton.
How good is center Mike Muscala and alternately how good could Mike Muscala ultimately be?
Muscala has a good post game when not double-teamed and great shooting range. He's an improved rebounder and very good shot-blocker. However he's thin and can be pushed away from the basket by stronger centers. He's very good now by Patriot League standards but could get better if he added weight/strength and if he added another post move and/or improved his drop step. Sometimes relies too much on the jump hook. Muscala, btw, is very young for a junior - which may give him a little more upside.
Looking at the numbers, it appears Bucknell takes good care of the ball but doesn't force many turnovers. Is that a fair description?
Yes, it is definitely fair. Even with Shazier gone, they have kept the turnovers down. At the defensive end, Cohen (two-time Patriot League defender of the year) and, to a lesser extent, Ayers are very good man defenders and Muscala is a very good shot-blocker. However they don't have a lot of guys who go for steals, and they usually play fairly conservative defense. Paulsen uses man to man defense over 99% of the time. By the way, it's way too early to tell if this is meaningful, but freshman PG Kaspar has six steals in 48 minutes of play - so it is possible he could be a defensive threat in terms of forcing turnovers.
The Bison return from Thanksgiving with their third victory of the year if...
I'll give you three things:
1. If they can get a good scoring game from at least one of their two leading scorers from last year: Muscala and Johnson.
2. If Willman and Muscala can avoid serious foul trouble.
3. If Ayers continues to handle the ball well at the point.
Princeton defeats Bucknell for the 11th time overall if...
I don't have time to do any anlysis of Princeton, but I'd say pretty much the opposite of the above:
1. If Princeton controls Muscala and Johnson, and the other three starters don't step up with good offensive games.
2. Force Muscala and Willman to the bench with foul trouble.
3. Hit a good pct on threes.
When we initially exchanged messages, you said you've been following the Bison for 44 years. Any memories of previous games against the Tigers?
Here's four I remember well. Two Bucknell wins, two Princeton wins:
1. 1983-84: Bucknell pulled out a very entertaining two-point win at Jadwin. That started off a season where BU ended up 24-5.
2. 1996-97: Again in Jadwin. Game goes to OT (after Princeton led by 19 in the second half! - JS) and Bucknell rolls to a 12-point win. That was one of only four Princeton losses fo the year and the other three were all against BCS-conference schools.
3. 1998-99: One more at Jadwin. A game that from the Bucknell perspective was likely similar to Princeton's 41-21 loss a few years ago vs Monmouth. Not that the score was similar but BU's play in losing 68-27 was likely similar to PU's play. Bucknell played every bit as bad as the score suggests - perhaps the worst game I've ever seen from a Bison team (31-6 Tigers at halftime! - JS). But somehow Flannery righted the ship in the second half. Bucknell went 3-8 through December and then 13-5 thereafter. Granted the second half schedule was easier, but the team's play improved dramatically and the had a nice win over George Mason in January. Also advanced to the Patriot League title game.
4. Coaches vs Cancer game in the Carrier Dome to open 2004 - the season when Bucknell improved dramatically starting in late November, won at Pitt and at St. Joes mid-year and ultimately beat Kansas in the NCAAs. That game was an easy close for a half and then Princeton pulled away, as their hot shooting and Bucknell's poor shooting more than overcame a big Bucknell rebounding edge. My one memory of that game is that it was the debut of 2G John Griffin (son of former St. Joes coach) who was forced into a starting role due to BU's PG being out with an injury. Griffin shot 5-5 from the floor and scored 18 points. Also only one turnvover despite not knowing the offense well. He then shot 5-5 again in a consolation game win. He never went 10-10 again in his career. I think some of it was him not knowing the offense and just playing street ball - a style where he was very comfortable.
That's great stuff. Usually at the end of these Q&As I ask people to plug their web site/blog/newspaper, but as a member of Bucknell's Basketball-U forum, perhaps say a few words about the community that has developed there? The floor is yours.
Not much too say. We've developed a good group of posters - many of whom have been on the site since the glory years of 2004-05 and 2005-06 - but I wish we had a few more. No-one has ever taken the time to try to publicize the site, so many Bucknell fans probably don't know it exists. We do have a lot of knowledgeable fans and the conversation is always at a high level. No trash-talking, except for the year BU played Arkansas in the NCAA's and we unfortunately were visited by a lot of Razorback "fans". After Bucknell beat them, they thankfully never returned.